Comparison of two prognostic models in trauma outcome. BJS 2018; 105: 513-519.
Published: 21st February 2018
Authors: A. Cook, T. Osler, L. Glance, F. Lecky, O. Bouamra, J. Weddle et al.
The Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) in the UK publicly reports hospital performance in the management of trauma. The TARN risk adjustment model uses a fractional polynomial transformation of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) as the measure of anatomical injury severity. The Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM) is an alternative to ISS; this study compared the anatomical injury components of the TARN model with the TMPM.
Data from the National Trauma Data Bank for 2011–2015 were analysed. Probability of death was estimated for the TARN fractional polynomial transformation of ISS and compared with the TMPM. The coefficients for each model were estimated using 80 per cent of the data set, selected randomly. The remaining 20 per cent of the data were used for model validation. TMPM and TARN were compared using calibration curves, measures of discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curves; AUROC), proximity to the true model (Akaike information criterion; AIC) and goodness of model fit (Hosmer–Lemeshow test).
Some 438 058 patient records were analysed. TMPM demonstrated preferable AUROC (0·882 for TMPM
TMPM had greater discrimination, proximity to the true model and goodness‐of‐fit than the anatomical injury component of TARN. TMPM should be considered for the injury severity measure for the comparative assessment of trauma centres.Full text
You may also be interested in
Authors: K. Søreide, D. C. Winter
Authors: S. Wiig, C. Macrae
Authors: F. Dossa, N. N. Baxter
Authors: S. M. L. de Mik, F. E. Stubenrouch, R. Balm, D. T. Ubbink
Notes: Heterogeneous data
Authors: M. L. Nicholson, C. Yong, P. B. Trotter, L. Grant, S. A. Hosgood
Notes: Rare, but predictable
Meta‐analysis of the influence of lifestyle changes for preoperative weight loss on surgical outcomes.
Authors: M. Roman, A. Monaghan, G. F. Serraino, D. Miller, S. Pathak, F. Lai et al.
Notes: Possible but how much is enough?
Multicentre cohort study of antihypertensive and lipid‐lowering therapy cessation after bariatric surgery.
Authors: J. Thereaux, T. Lesuffleur, S. Czernichow, A. Basdevant, S. Msika, D. Nocca et al.
Notes: Better than controls
Authors: M. S. de Vos, J. F. Hamming
Development and validation of a nomogram to predict recurrence and melanoma‐specific mortality in patients with negative sentinel lymph nodes.
Authors: D. Verver, D. van Klaveren, V. Franke, A. C. J. van Akkooi, P. Rutkowski, U. Keilholz et al.
Notes: Could personalize care